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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.